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Tutorials on Polymarket, Kalshi, the CLOB, fees, oracles, and bot design.
- Strategy · 9 min read
Backtesting binary prediction market strategies honestly
Survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, and fee modeling -- the three mistakes that make backtests look better than live trading.
- Fundamentals · 7 min read
How Chainlink RTDS settles 5/15-minute crypto binaries on Polymarket
How Chainlink Real-Time Data Streams drives settlement for short-dated crypto binaries, and the resolveViaGamma polling pattern used in trading bots.
- Operations · 7 min read
Debugging stale orders on the Polymarket CLOB
Why CLOB orders go stale -- network drops, dust, near-resolution -- how to detect them, and how to cancel systematically.
- Operations · 7 min read
Deploying a trading bot with PM2
ecosystem.config.js, auto-restart, log rotation, and max_memory_restart for running Polymarket bots reliably in production.
- Strategy · 7 min read
Detecting choppy markets with volume imbalance
How to use buy/sell volume imbalance as a chop filter, with the exact threshold logic from poly5m-v4 and poly15m-v6.
- Tooling · 6 min read
Fetching the Polymarket orderbook via the CLOB API
How to GET /book/?token_id= to retrieve live bids and asks, parse the response, and extract best bid/ask in TypeScript.
- Strategy · 6 min read
GTC vs FOK on Polymarket -- when to use each order type
Decision tree for choosing Good-Till-Cancelled vs Fill-Or-Kill on the Polymarket CLOB, with fee math and practical entry patterns.
- Fundamentals · 8 min read
How the Polymarket neg-risk adapter works
Pooled collateral, the CTF vs neg-risk distinction, contract address 0xd91E80cF..., and why it matters for redemption bots.
- Strategy · 8 min read
Kelly criterion for binary prediction markets
Full Kelly formula for binary outcomes, why quarter-Kelly is the practical choice, and a ready-to-use sizing function for Polymarket bots.
- Fundamentals · 6 min read
How Polymarket CLOB fees actually work
Step-by-step derivation of the Polymarket taker fee formula with a worked example and a chart of where it peaks.
- Operations · 8 min read
Redeeming resolved Polymarket positions on-chain
How to redeem winning positions via the CTF contract directly, the relayer vs direct-call tradeoff, and gas math for the redeemer bot.
- Operations · 8 min read
Running multiple trading bots on one Polymarket wallet
Nonce management, balance sharing, and per-bot caps for running poly5m-v4, poly15m-v6, and polycopy concurrently on a single wallet.
- Operations · 7 min read
Secrets management for trading bots
Keep private keys out of git with secrets.json, how to use env vars vs files, and what to do if a key leaks.
- Strategy · 7 min read
Sizing positions with drawdown caps
A drawdown-aware Kelly variant that halves position size after a losing streak, with the exact pattern used in poly15m-v6.
- Tooling · 6 min read
Telegram alerts for trading bots
How to wire up a Telegram bot for trade alerts using the bot-monitor.js pattern -- bot token, chat_id, and simple POST to api.telegram.org.