Blog
Updates, analysis, and postmortems from running bots on real capital.
Launching predtools — production bots for prediction markets
Why I built this catalog, what's in it, and what's next.
by Arnaud Knobloch
What I learned watching the top 20 Polymarket wallets for 90 days
Building polycopy revealed that most whale wallets aren't geniuses. They have edge in narrow corners. Here's what that looks like in practice.
by Arnaud Knobloch
An honest look at Polymarket as a business — volume, risks, and why we still build here
Volume trends, oracle disputes, regulatory exposure, and Kalshi's growth. A clear-eyed view of why Polymarket is still the right platform to build on.
by Arnaud Knobloch
The edge in Chainlink RTDS latency — and why it's shrinking
A technical look at the milliseconds-to-seconds gap between exchange print and oracle settlement, and what it means for 5-minute binary traders.
by Arnaud Knobloch
Why your bot loses money to fees when you trade at $0.50 — the peak-fee problem explained
The taker fee on Polymarket 5-minute crypto binaries peaks at ~1.56% at p=0.50. Here's the math that kills most mid-price strategies.
by Arnaud Knobloch
60 days running poly5m-v4 on BTC — what the numbers actually look like
A first-person post-mortem on two months of live trading with the multi-exchange median scalper. Real ranges, real drawdowns, no cherry-picking.
by Arnaud Knobloch