Hit Rate
A synonym for win rate — the fraction of trades that resolve as profitable, used interchangeably in prediction market trading contexts.
Definition
Hit rate is synonymous with win rate: the percentage of trades that result in a profit. The term "hit rate" is more common in signal-based or quantitative contexts, while "win rate" is more common in sports betting. In prediction market bot development, both terms refer to the same metric: hits / total_trades.
In practice
Bot monitoring dashboards and log parsers in predtools track hit rate per session, per day, and per market. A signal-based bot targeting a hit rate of at least 55% on 5-minute BTC binaries needs 55 out of 100 trades to resolve YES when it bought YES (or NO when it shorted). Hit rate is meaningless without the accompanying payout ratio — a 55% hit rate with tiny wins and large losses is worse than a 45% hit rate with large wins. Always evaluate hit rate alongside average win/loss size and expected value.